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Alani, A M, Petersen, A K, Chapman, K G and Khosrowshahi, F (2004) A proposed quantitative model for building repair and maintenance -theory, model development and application. Journal of Construction Research, 5(02), 193–210.

Blyth, K, Lewis, J and Kaka, A (2004) Predicting project and activity duration for buildings in the UK. Journal of Construction Research, 5(02), 329–47.

Collins, A and Baccarini, D (2004) Project success -a survey. Journal of Construction Research, 5(02), 211–31.

Han, S H and Diekmann, J (2004) Judgment-based cross-impact method for predicting cost variance for highly uncertain projects. Journal of Construction Research, 5(02), 171–92.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: risk analysis; cross-impact analysis; cost variance; contingency
  • ISBN/ISSN: 1609 9451
  • URL: http://www.worldscinet.com/jcr/05/0502/S1609945104000139.html
  • Abstract:
    Construction projects are very sensitive to project-specific conditions. Any possible combination of risk factors can significantly affect the success of a project's performance. Risk analysis has been used to predict the impact of various uncertainties that are inherent in construction projects. However, one key problem with present-day risk analysis methods is that they are basically mathematical or probability-oriented approaches which are not easy to adopt in real business because they easily become complex to capture the relations between the complex variables. This paper presents the use of a judgment-based method called Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) to model the cost risks of a construction project in a highly uncertain environment and to predict their impact on cost variance in the early stage of a bidding process. Then, a case study is performed to demonstrate the approach, which allows complex risk analysis to be performed simply by common users in capturing the risk variables' relations, while maintaining an acceptable accuracy limit.

Haupt, T C and Smallwood, J (2004) HIV and AIDS in SA construction: attitudes and perceptions of workers. Journal of Construction Research, 5(02), 311–27.

Moore, J E, Kuprenas, J, Lee, J-J, Gordon, P, Richardson, H and Pan, Q (2004) Cost analysis methodology for advanced treatment of stormwater: the Los Angeles case. Journal of Construction Research, 5(02), 149–70.

Ofori, G, Dulaimi, M F and Ling, F Y Y (2004) Improving performance of construction industry in Singapore: motivators, enablers and lessons for developing countries. Journal of Construction Research, 5(02), 267–89.

Sebastian, R (2004) Critical appraisal of design management in architecture. Journal of Construction Research, 5(02), 255–66.

Soetanto, R and Proverbs, D G (2004) Intelligent models for predicting levels of client satisfaction. Journal of Construction Research, 5(02), 233–53.

Wood, B and Kenley, R (2004) The effectiveness of the bills of quantities in Australia. Journal of Construction Research, 5(02), 291–309.